Bitcoin P&F TA

So BTC looks very bullish lately.

It is interesting to look in possible scenarios.

Let's start from 'classical' TA and move to Point & Figure charts.

Firstly let's look Btc-e (I boycott Bitfinex, Bitstamp has very low volume, Coinbase & Gemini can go f@ck themselves):

1d RSI has bearish divergence but 3d+1w (as you can see in a chart of your own) are ok. Notice the double top.

The relevant okcoin chart is the below:

The relevant double top is broken (now acts as support) but the 1d rsi divergence is more obvious here.

Now, in a BTC uptrend, the above divergence might be of no importance but it is worth noticing.

What is worrying though is the bearish divergence in 3d+1w charts (not the case for btc-e though):

Again, we can ignore it for now but it is kind of worrying. 1w looks as it is the beginning of a big move upwards though (in China always).

Let's look at P&F.

Weekly at btce just gave a bullish catapult but we must break the previous high of 740 (750+).

(The sell signal here is 680$)

The weekly chart of Huobi has broken this resistance already:

If we zoom in to 8h:

we noticed something important - the congestion area breaks either at 5200 or at 5425.

What does all these mean?

In my opinion we can have two scenarios:

1) We will break below 5200 because west did not follow and we were overbought in China, so moon will probably be postponed for 1 to 3 months

2) We will break above 5425 (and 750 at btc-e with volume) and we will go bananas to reset the long term chart indicators (like RSI)

I can't give exact trading advice due to various reasons that have to do with market properties (liquidity) and risk/portfolio management strategies of each trader/investor.

So for example one could be already long because he believes it will break up again, with a stop at 5200 or even lower (depending on his strategy) or wait to buy above 5425 (but if he is a big whale he will find it hard to rebuy and probably even small amount traders will enter with some slippage).

Targets for upwards are probably around 1000$ for BTCUSD pair and previous ATH for China. Then we will have to re-evaluate.

For downwards in a new post if we break below 5200.

kLee