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Stunted Bull into Stunted Bear?

![tear-bear-cub.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/edicted/243gBSzuQ92ttHBkgiNQorA6sb6FBSyRVvtkRTGQwhpYnbiGQ6ACU3pCgBcn5gKrMAPNG.jpg)

Could we actually catch a break this time?

So I follow a couple successful crypto traders on social media and they seem to be flipping bullish a bit early. Color me skeptical considering we are approaching that classic, "sell in May and go away," moniker, but still maybe there's a point to be had in this case. Surely there's a light at the end of the tunnel, but depth perception on how far away that light is seems to be quite variable.

Four year cycle bros got another free win.

For a very long time the four-year-cycle crew was saying that the top was going to be in September or October of 2025. I was on record as not drinking the koolaid this time around (oops!). Some of them even went so far as to say, "late September or early October". So basically the four year cycle theory played out pretty much exactly how it was anticipated (in one case down to the exact day which was very odd indeed).

A lot of people like myself weren't ready to buy this narrative because the market performed quite poorly especially when factoring in alts. I guess that's what we get when the new narrative for building value in the space was just cloning a bunch of meme coins on Solana rather than inventing something that could of at least been useful in theory (like ICO/DEFI/AMM/NFT of previous cycles). But also even Bitcoin performed poorly considering how much institutional attention it was receiving. All the data pointed to periods of constant supply shock and yet Bitcoin only went like x3 after Blackrock created the most successful ETF product in the history of ever.

It was all pretty weird and suspect.

Some people think a bunch of paper Bitcoin was issued.
Others still think the quantum threat is much worse than estimated.
There's also evidence of hardcore hodlers cashing out their positions and simply jumping ship.
This could either be from the Core drama or simply because the liquidity exists to exit.

In any case: 4 year cycle.

Continuing on with the idea that Bitcoin is largely predictable over these 4-year stints, our current bear market should not end until September. It takes about a year and also we often see three big capitulation events. There have only been 2 capitulation events and 5 more months till September, so plenty of time to get one more good dump before the full bottom-out occurs. This is what I expect to happen anyway.

image.png

Chart looks relatively safe

The only line I feel like I need to be looking at right now is the most relevant line for the BTC chart of all time. $58k has been such an insane milestone that it now barely spans into three distinct cycles. Honestly this may be something that never happens again. Having the price come back to this line so many times since February 2021 has been quite the roller coaster. Just when we think we've said goodbye to it for the last time we get yet another return. Surely this will be the last time... right?

I've been selling a tiny bit of BTC here to pay bills and such. Not because I'm convinced the price will go down but simply because if it does it's going to put me on major tilt leaving me unbearably annoyed. Best to avoid that emotional state. I also don't trust the current ascending channel we find ourselves in. I have too much experience with ascending channels in Bitcoin completely breaking down and reaching newer lows to trust this one. I'd much rather be seeing a descending channel to be honest... even though the slow bleed is painful in the short term if does feel quite nice when it finally breaks bullish.

bear-market- bus.png

But again this time was actually a bit different.

Never before have we had such a solid anchor like $58k to bounce and rally from. Never before has the price action been so muted at the peak even with rampant adoption. I've always said volatility breeds volatility. The snapback effect is real. We didn't go very high, and now we haven't gone very low either.

Certainly it would be nice for this bear market to only last half a year instead of the full 12 months. I mean I'm not betting on it but it seems like a lot of the traders that I follow certainly are. Perhaps we just get a nice summer rally with a big correction in September which would also be painfully standard.

Conclusion

Maybe what people have said is true. Perhaps Bitcoin really is losing a lot of it's volatility due to wider adoption. That means the highs are going to be lower, which isn't as fun an euphoric as previous cycles, but it also means the bear markets will be much easier to stomach as well. Should this be the case I suppose it's all for the best. Stability has been the enemy of crypto for quite some time. Perhaps we are on the cusp of a new era.

425 upvotes $10.78

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