Floor calculation for Bitcoin $38095

Before crypto , many other illiquid assets with high levels of uncertainty have been valued and priced. As I did in high yield and sovereign debt market, with bitcoin , you have to start with Some assumptions and work from there.

Here is how I get to 38095 Floor (worst case) long term value for bitcoin :

Assuming bitcoin is not used at all in normal economy, governments boycott it etc .

Size of worldwide black economy = 4 tn USD annually

Assuming 20% (800bn) of it is stuff you really want to hide - drugs, human trafficking , the ugliest stuff , you need to transact in something and leaving judgements on morality aside , the most attractive current way which has first mover advantage and wide adoption is BTC.

800bn / 21 million max bitcoins issued over life time = 38095

Not saying we will get there in a month or any judgement on speed. But you can see how value can swell much higher if there is wider adoption then this.

This is my first post , hope you ll like it . Will try and share more from my trading experience. All steem earned here I will give to my charity http://forgottenanimals.org