Fakeout Or Breakout?

It's been some time

I have been a bit busy lately which is why I haven't posted for a while. Although I have to admit that seeing prices lately hasn't been exactly exhilarating. Hive, among other coins has continually printed new ATLs. Since we are still (?) in a bear market that has to be expected; but it also makes it harder to keep faith in crypto in general. Anyway, this week has seen some excitement and I have to wonder once again: is the bottom in?

You might remember one of my last posts in which I tried to outline the next 2-3 years. I had two bottom targets for this cycle. One in July and one at around November (red boxes). For now it seems that the first one might have been confirmed. But that could easily be an erroneous assessment. What is clear from the chart, however, is that the weekly candle so far is absolutely massive. So far it is up by +26% and has easily broken through the resistance trend line (red line). Also note the uptick in volume which favors a breakout.

We can also see that the EMAs lie all within that weekly candle. Currently the 50 and 100 EMAs seem to be the main resistance. No doubt that there will soon be some golden crosses should price hold up for a bit longer.

I think the main argument against a real breakout and trend change is just how little time has passed since the break down in price and the shift into the bear market. This only happened around 10 months ago. In past cycles a macro trend change happened a few months later (around 12 months). It also always happened in Q4 of a year.

It is probably a good idea to still stay cautious given the strong volatility and the fakeouts we have had so far in BTC. But this week has shown that there is still some "juice" in crypto and that price can actually move up as well (which is a new feeling once again for ALT coin hodlers ).

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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