Bitcoin Cash - increase my bitcoin position or not?

Hi Steemians,

So obviously BCC is the talk of the town now and for good reason. It looks like BCC will be there August 1 but what happens next is anyone’s guess. I see three scenarios, assuming BCC will go ahead:

1. BCC sell off. Since everyone will be getting BCC for free there is a massive sell off of BCC straight away - also to prove a point to these ‘rogue’ miners to protect the future of Bitcoin going forward. Steady as we go from there and Bitcoin will rise since there is no new bitcoin-coin.
2. BCC explodes. BCC will be backed and form a stable base - sentiment changes like we have seen with ETH classic and the coin will initially explode before profit takers stabilise it. Bitcoin however will fall, causing the other currencies to fall.
3. Non-event. Yes BCC happens but because of all the hype before everyone has taken positions and nothing really happens on the day itself. As a result people won’t put any more money in BTC or BCC and this can mean the other currencies could get a boost.

Mind you, I’m just thinking out loud here trying to make sense of this situation. For more background please read the @boxmining posts - these are super helpful and Michael understand the market better than I ever will.

But the reason for me to write this post is to crystallise my thinking and also create a thesis and approach for my crypto holdings. You see, in scenario 1, I would not change my current portfolio make-up, in scenario 2 I would move more into BTC now - getting more BCC as a result and move BTC back into e.g. ETH on August 1, scenario 3 would probably mean I would move more out of BTC now, probably into ETH.

What are your thoughts?? See any other scenarios and what would you do?

Cheers, Jeroen (aka The Transparent Trader)