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Pasha

@pasha-kamyshev

72 followers 2 following 9 posts Reputation 30.63

Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Mar 14, 2020, 11:35 PM UTC

Better Estimates of Covid19 death rates

What is the real death rate of Covid-19? I want to estimate the per-age fatality rate of different countries: China, South Korea and Italy. South Korea has 72 deaths and 8086 cases for an overall CFR…

1 upvotes 0 replies $0.02
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Mar 9, 2020, 2:02 AM UTC

Basic Coronavirus Predictions

Attempting to predict things is hard, especially about the future. Right now I am doing some very rough estimates of where I expect things to be in two weeks. (on 3/22/2020) South Korea: The outbreak…

0 upvotes 0 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Nov 12, 2018, 7:17 AM UTC

Post-Rationality and Rationality, A Dialogue

A dialogue between R (rationalist) and P (post-rationalist) Any resemblance of these fictional characters to real people is not a coincidence because nothing is ever really a coincidence. R: I sincer…

5 upvotes 2 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Aug 27, 2018, 6:05 AM UTC

Aumann’s Agreement Revisited

This post is about reviewing some of the slightly counter-intuitive conclusions that Baysean probability theory has on agreement between people’s probabilities about the same belief. You have probabl…

2 upvotes 0 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Apr 27, 2018, 6:14 AM UTC

Double Cruxing the AI Foom debate

This post is generally in response to both Paul Christiano’s post and the original foom debate. I am trying to find the exact circumstances and conditions which would point to fast or slow AI takeoff…

3 upvotes 0 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Apr 22, 2018, 12:42 AM UTC

Fermi Paradox

This post has two parts. First, I outline some way to evaluate arguments about the Fermi paradox which show ways that it is unlikely to be solved by, as well as some common arguments against the Earl…

3 upvotes 0 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Feb 18, 2018, 9:38 PM UTC

Efficient Market Hypothesis Explained

You may have not have heard about the Efficient Markets Hypothesis or wondered how it would apply to different assets classes. However, if you have been in investing, you probably have heard at least…

0 upvotes 0 replies $0.00
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Jan 29, 2018, 4:38 AM UTC

On Crypto and The Classification Bubble

The post "How an Algorithm Feels from the Inside” is one the highlights of rationality. It has a lot packed into it, so here is my take on it. There is a program in your brain. I call it Classificati…

5 upvotes 2 replies $0.03
Pasha
@pasha-kamyshev Jan 29, 2018, 4:21 AM UTC

Introduction

Hello, my name is Pasha. I am a software developer currently at Microsoft interested in cryptocurrency, rationality and AI Safety. My links: Life In A Free Market Twitter LinkedIn All opinions are my…

11 upvotes 14 replies $0.03